Driven by divergent monetary policies between the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), the foreign exchange market experienced fundamental shifts in the first quarter of 2024.
The VT Markets Research Desk indicates that throughout Q1, the Federal Reserve adopted a notably cautious approach to monetary policy. While many central banks globally shifted towards more pronounced easing, the Fed opted for a more measured stance, maintaining its benchmark interest rate within the 4.25%-4.5% range.
Internal policy debates, however, suggested emerging divisions, as a moderate camp favoring a single rate cut of 25 basis points gained traction, displacing earlier advocacy for more aggressive cuts. Such a nuanced policy environment signals the Fed’s heightened concern for economic uncertainties, reflecting a sentiment of caution rather than outright dovishness.
The Fed’s updated March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) further confirmed a conservative outlook. Economic growth forecasts for the year were revised downward from 2.1% to 1.7%, accompanied by upward adjustments in unemployment expectations to 4.4% and inflation projections reaching 2.7%-2.8%.
Additionally, alterations in the Fed’s official language were observed—specifically, the omission of the phrase regarding “balanced employment and inflation risks,” replaced instead by emphasis on “rising uncertainty.” Chairman Jerome Powell later clarified this stance, effectively reinforcing a scenario of limited rate cuts within the year.
Another observation relates to the Fed’s balance sheet management. Following last year’s reduction in the cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion, there was a further reduction to $5 billion which commenced in April. The mortgage-backed securities (MBS) cap remained unchanged at $35 billion. Consequently, the Fed’s balance sheet contracted to approximately $6.75 trillion, marking a recent low.
Chairman Powell explained that the slowdown in balance sheet reduction primarily stems from lower Treasury cash balances due to ongoing debt ceiling issues. The VT Markets Research Desk interprets this measured pace as indicative of strategic caution rather than abandonment of quantitative tightening, suggesting the Fed’s intention to manage market sentiment and liquidity conditions carefully.
Looking ahead, VT Markets advises market participants to closely monitor developments surrounding U.S. trade policy, especially potential tariff adjustments under the Trump administration, along with trends in inflation data, as these factors will significantly influence dollar sentiment in Q2.
Euro Resilience Amid Aggressive ECB Easing
In contrast to the Fed’s cautious positioning, the ECB pursued an assertively accommodative monetary stance, reducing its deposit rate from 4.0% to 2.5% across seven rate cuts since mid-2023. Interestingly, despite such aggressive easing, the euro demonstrated unexpected resilience, appreciating significantly against the dollar and recording the strongest gains among major global currencies.
The VT Markets Research Desk identifies several contributing factors behind the euro’s strength:
- Trade Policy Uncertainty: Persistent uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy under Trump eroded some of the dollar’s traditional safe-haven appeal, inadvertently supporting the euro.
- Equity Market Divergence: Relatively stronger performance in European equity markets compared to weaker U.S. stocks attracted cross-border capital flows, thereby increasing euro demand.
- Fiscal Stimulus Impact: Germany’s €500 billion fiscal stimulus package bolstered investor confidence, suggesting enhanced economic prospects for the Eurozone.
Nevertheless, the Research Desk notes that the sustainability of the euro’s gains remains contingent on both U.S. economic resilience and successful execution of European fiscal and monetary initiatives.
Possible Recovery for the Dollar
Entering Q2, the U.S. dollar index faced considerable pressure, declining approximately 3.85% in early 2024 amid trade-related uncertainties and shifting monetary expectations. Technical analysis indicates the dollar index found tentative support around the 102.8 level after rapid declines, suggesting potential stabilisation or a corrective rebound.
The VT Markets Research Desk highlights that recent dollar weakness may have partly reflected overreactions to policy uncertainty rather than fundamental deterioration. Consequently, should the Trump administration signal a softer stance on trade tariffs or if U.S. equities experience a sustained recovery, a renewed strengthening of the dollar index could follow.
Ongoing shifts in global monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB will remain pivotal in driving FX market volatility throughout 2024. The Research Desk suggests market participants to remain attentive to evolving policy signals, economic data releases, and geopolitical developments, particularly regarding U.S.-Europe economic dynamics, as these will be central to currency market direction in the coming months.
